TPN Predictions: Tories starved of a majority?

The TPN Predictions are in, our group of writers bring you the latest on what they believe will happen tomorrow. We asked four questions; 1) Which party will win the most seats? 2) Will there be a Tory Majority – Yes or No? 3) What’s the shock story of tomorrow? 4) Any further comments you may have…

First up – Seb Chromiak | Co-Editor-in-Chief | Voting constituency: Barrow and Furness
1. Tories
2. No – Tory Minority, my prediction is that they will accumulate between 319 and 329 seats.
3. It’s been quite a difficult election for pollsters, with the high number of undecided voters, the winter election and the consequences of this are without precedent, the new polling method which sees pollsters recite all the standing candidates may also prove costly. Issues of local campaigns and their importance are also difficult to gauge, Chris Altree, for instance, is 1/7 to win for Labour in Furness yet has run a fantastic local campaign. How the pollster’s factor in local campaigns is something that needs addressing with the utmost urgency. I think Ian Duncan Smith, Dominic Raab and Jo Swinson are all in big trouble and there could yet be more big names to fall. Critically, I believe seats such as Barrow will stay red, where things look less certain are for Labour in North Wales.
4. I think this has been a defining election, all the dirty tactics employed in the Brexit campaign have resurfaced and the BBC article published yesterday, that 82% of Tory ads this election have been misleading is damning. I echo Sam’s comments in that this could be the last opportunity for a revolutionary economic project for Britain, that isn’t shaped in the model of neoliberal economics. Finally, as I wrote earlier, this election will likely see the realignment of the working classes towards the Tories even if the red wall doesn’t crumble.

Shane Green – Head of Public Policy | Voting constituency:
1. Tories
2. No – Tory Minority
3. I hope I’m wrong but I think Leigh could swing Tory very marginally (it’s always been Labour)
4. A YouGov Poll 2 weeks ago had Tory candidate Janes Grundy ahead by less than 1%. Although a new poll from last night suggests otherwise, that the current labour MP Jo Platt is forecasted to receive 43% (4% higher than Grundy). I think this suggests a degree of uncertainty amongst voters, that + shy Tory voters + an 11% Brexit party vote that a majority of which could go Tory on the day, could spring a surprise. As I say, hope I’m wrong.

Robbie Lennie – Head of Scottish Politics | Voting constituency: Barrow and Furness
1) Tories with the most seats
2) No majority for either party. However, if the SNP do as well as predicted a hung parliament will benefit Labour far more than the Conservatives.
3) Some major constituencies will be lost by both major parties. The Conservative cull of their moderate MPs will be too much for some moderate Tory voters. Likewise, former Labour MPs who left the party through claims of anti-Semitism may turn some voters and strong Brexit supporters will not vote Labour. In Scotland, Jo Swinson will lose her seat. The SNP is her biggest threat and has also taken a strong anti-Brexit stance, meaning her single issue stance on stopping Brexit is essentially void.
4) The SNP may not do as well as tip, as I wrote at the beginning of the election, they have lent very hard into being anti-Brexit which may put off potential SNP voters who want “Double Independence” ie to leave the UK and the EU. Tactical voting won’t play as big a role as people are predicting. Politics is divided, people will be voting with their hearts, not their heads. Chris Altree to win Barrow and increase Labour’s majority. He has run a personal and local campaign with many people wanting to vote for him instead of the party name. The Brexit party running in the constituency will also take votes away from the Tory, Simon Fell.

Sam Glasper – Head of Foreign Affairs | Voting constituency: Bishop Auckland
1. Conservatives most seats
2. No Tory majority, Tory minority government likely
3. Ian Duncan Smith and Dennis Skinner both looking likely to lose their seats
4. The election will likely signal either the end of or the true start of the Corbyn project. Already new leadership options are being touted so this may be the last chance to have a (somewhat) anti-imperialist government at this critical time for the foreseeable future. Should the Tories win a comfortable majority then the destruction they will oversee for the next 5 years may be enough to make even Thatcher jealous. God willing we get a Labour government but it won’t be enough to guarantee our liberation quite yet.

Chris Rose – TPN Contributor | Voting constituency: Edgbaston
1) Conservatives get the most seats, but not enough to form a majority government
2) No. Nor Tory government. Liberal Democrat’s and SNP, assures by viable and justifiable referendums, support labour in a government of confidence
3) Unseating of Dominic raab
4) This election has proved more than anything the distrust and lies that have infected British politics. Regardless of the outcome, there needs to be much greater regulation – especially in regards to social media advertising and bot farming

Faheem Ahmed – TPN Contributor | Voting constituency:
1) It’s difficult to tell from the polls who will get the most seats due to the high rates of tactical voting against both Labour and the Conservative Party.
2) However, it does seem as if whichever party wins the election won’t win by a majority but rather a minority. So it will not be a Tory majority either a labour majority.
3) What would come as a shock is if Boris Johnson loses his seat to Ali Milani in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Ali Milani is 9 points behind Boris Johnson in the polls however The Liberal Democrat’s and the Green Party are polling together at 9 points so it’s a question of whether their voters will be getting behind Milani for the sake of tactically voting against Boris Johnson.
4) I am optimistic for a Labour government and I do take polls with a pinch of salt so perhaps my optimism is clouding my rational judgement.

Iwan Doherty- TPN Founder and former Editor in Chief| Voting constituency: Warwick and Leamington 1) Conservative Party.
2) Yes, Slim Tory majority, some optimistic voices here but I think they could scrape in on 330 seats.
3) Expecting some high profile losses on both sides, Raab and Skinner are two to watch.
4) This election will be won and lost in a few key constituencies but the place to watch is North Wales. 8 key marginals where a few hundreds vote could decide it, the Exit Poll may not tell the full story if Labour gets their vote out in Gwynedd. This is a re-alignment election and Labour will hope they can offset Northern losses with new southern gains. A hung parliament would be tricky for both sides as will most likely lead to more deadlock if that’s the case do Labour swap their leader and try again?


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