It’s a numbers game.
Theresa May know’s all to well that she needs 320 MP’s to ensure her Brexit bill gets through the commons, which looks to be very tricky at the time of writing. Many Conservative MP’s have written to the Conservative Party chair to express that they wish to trigger a vote of no confidence, Sir Graham Brady needs letters from 15% of Tory MP’s to trigger a vote, although many have pointed out she’ll likely survive, her Brexit bill will probably not. Why? The extreme wing of her party will vote it down, Labour have indicated that they will do the same.
Theresa May has called on Labour to stop playing party politics, those MP’s wishing to avoid a no-deal Brexit may think twice, about how they cast their vote, as a Thatcherite programme, mark 2 may be on the horizon if so.
This has always been the sticking point, with the commitment to avoid a hard border in Ireland, but also the commitment to leave the customs union and single market, the PM was always going to have it difficult, although it was her own making.
It now looks as if the Northern Ireland will essentially remain in the customs union, with goods not having to be checked if they cross from the Republic to Northern Ireland and vice versa, with no checks on goods from NI to mainland Britain. Got that?
This essentially isolates NI and the DUP have already indicated that they will vote against any such deal.
Several polls had Labour establish a lead this morning, Opinum had Labour on 39% – 3% points ahead of the Tory’s, ComRes had Labour on 40% – with a lead of 4%. Other major opinion polls reported similar results.
Public mood is shifting however, a recent poll from Survation and Sky Data, showed that 54% of people now want No Brexit, No Deal on 32%, and May’s deal on 14%.
Which leads us nicely to the 2nd referendum question, Jeremy Corbyn called it an option for the future and similarly John McDonnell has refused to rule it out, which is telling.
Secretly, I think Labour have pulled off a masterclass in out-manoeuvring the Tory’s on Brexit. They have their six-point test as a measure but have rarely committed to much and have allowed the Tory’s to implode, steadily gauging public opinion. The next few months are crucial to Labour, they must be ready to strike.
Further still, UKIP’s polling is steadily on the rise, which means that if Labour can keep the core support, the vote share that the Tory’s gained in 2017 may start to recede, something that will undoubtedly increase Labour’s electoral chances.
Who run the world? – The ERG according to Anna Soubry.
Finally, in an interview published in the New European, she said the following, “after being told by whips not to vote in support of Labour’s motion to force the government to release legal advice from the attorney general on Brexit she blasted: “Who is running this country? This government or the ERG?””