Theresa May will face the 1922 committee tonight in hoping of securing of her future as Conservative Party leader as MPs are close to triggering a vote of no confidence in her leadership.
May faces rebellion from the DUP after reportingly breaking their redlines with her Brexit proposals. The PM’s proposals see Northern Ireland in a separate VAT area to the rest of the UK, something the DUP will not allow. The DUP have threatened to vote against the budget, as well as the Brexit deal, if their red lines are breached.
However, the more serious rebellion comes from the right wing of the Conservative Party. The ERG group have committed to voting against her Chequers deal, meaning the PM is around 50 votes short of the majority she needs.
According to Sky and The Times, 46 Tory MPs have written to the 1922 committee expressing no confidence in May. 48 letters are needed to trigger a vote of no confidence. 159 MPs would then need to vote against May to trigger a leadership election.
This leadership challenge is independent of Parliament and will not directly trigger a general election.
The PM has faced violent abuse this week with one Brexiteer stating she should “bring her own noose” to this 1922 committee meeting. May’s future may be decided based on her performance tonight. 50 MPs are now members of the grassroots group Stand Up for Brexit, a grassroots group that opposes Chequers.
Devastating @IpsosMORI chart showing changing public opinion to the question 'Are you confident Theresa May will get a good deal for Britain in negotiations with other European Union leaders?' No wonder Theresa May doesn't want a public vote on the deal. https://t.co/J7Sh52zwR9 pic.twitter.com/phlb5aHdYO
— Neil Foster (@NeilFosterGMB) October 24, 2018
It would be seen as an act of inward-looking self-indulgence by people out there who know we are at am important stage of the negotiations. This is exactly the wrong time to be doing these kind of things.
Analysis from Iwan Doherty- Editor in Chief
The Tory Brexiteers would do themselves serious damage by jumping the gun here, a civil war will only play into Labour’s hands.
With leaked reports saying May has broken the DUP’s red lines on Brexit and 50 MPs now part of ‘Stand up for Brexit’ it looks impossible that Chequers will get through Parliament. Next week’s budget will also not pass without DUP support. Inability to pass a budget results in the government dissolving and parliament will most likely act to stop a No Deal. It would be in the Brexiteers interest to launch a leadership challenge in these scenarios. They should aim to step in and form a new government and win a vote of confidence to stop a general election after May has lost one of the aforementioned key votes. Their early action might end in an unwanted general election later down the line.
In addtion, the Tory rebels do not have the numbers to win such a challenge. May will have the support of enough Remainers to deny the rebels of the 159 votes needed to start a leadership election. The fact that they were unable to force even a vote of no confidence when Chequers was announced and their ringleaders resigned from cabinet shows the weakness of the ERG faction.