It has been revealed by Election Maps UK that the new constituency boundaries proposed would give the Conservatives a huge advantage in elections. The Conservatives would need a 2pt lead over Labour in vote share to achieve a majority but Labour would need an 11pt lead over the Conservatives to do likewise. The calculations were made by Electoral Maps UK.
I've been playing around with the proposed new seat boundaries on @ElectCalculus and found something quite shocking:
– CON need a ~2pt lead over LAB for a majority
– LAB need a ~11pt lead over CON for a majority
— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) September 5, 2018
As detailed by TPN formerly, under proposed boundaries, if both parties achieved 40% of the vote the Conservatives would have a 40 seat lead.
This shows that the supposedly independent boundary commissions have gerrymandered the constituencies in favour of the Tories. The boundaries are changing because the Conservatives want to reduce the size of the House of Commons to 600 seats, they also want to make constituency population sizes fairer.
The proposed changes no longer negatively impact the DUP so could be voted through by Parliament but it is reported that Peter Bone has 10 Tories who will vote against it, enough to defeat the government.
A victory for the government would pretty much rule out a majority Labour government, the last person to win by 11pts was Blair in 1997, his huge lead gave him 418 seats. It would be a huge win for the Tories, and those campaigning against the ‘First past the post’ election system.
The Boundary Commission has yet to release the full report but this initial data shows that they would need to seriously reconsider as the changes clearly amount to gerrymandering on behalf of the government.
It is worth noting the current boundaries already favour the Conservatives- with the party being overrepresented by 6.4% in the Commons. Labour are overrepresented by only 0.3%. Such a distortion arises from the system of First Past the Post favouring the larger parties.
Simply it’s a perversion of democracy. Anyone claiming the boundary commission is independent needs to realise that no independent credible organisation could suggest such changes. If they are biased they need to be replaced, if these changes are due to a mistake on their behalf they need to go back to the drawing board.
I encourage readers to act to stop this, contact your MP and tell them to vote against any changes to the boundaries of constituencies that act to gerrymander our elections.