Tick Tock, the Tory game of Brexit Chicken.

With 69% of Britons saying Brexit is going badly, (including 58% of leavers), May is under increasing pressure from her critics, be that in her Government or on the opposition benches.

With her Brexit plan that was agreed upon at Chequers already on the rails and two senior figures handing in their resignation, she is now also faced with the reality that it will almost certainly be rejected by the EU. Whilst talk intensifies about the 48 signatures needed to trigger a Vote of No Confidence for the Tory Leadership, what is less certain is whether MPs will trigger such a mechanism.

The rebels have more problems than simple numbers, firstly who to replace her, there’s an open field of budding candidates, but the Tories haven’t yet united behind one candidate as an ideal replacement. Ruth Davidson looks like a likely front runner amongst Tory voters, but critically not MPs, she polls highest in 4 of 6 categories, but there’s no indication as to whether she’d put her name in the hat. Secondly and significantly, she campaigned for Remain, which is unlikely to heal any divisions in the Tory party.
Critically for Corbyn however, is that May will likely stay on, and he’ll relish being able to face the predictable and easily malfunctioning Maybot at PMQs, just look at how it played on CNN on Monday evening. Although, a general election is unlikely even if the VONC was triggered, the lack of rebellion within the Tory party may be a blessing in disguise for Corbyn. Voters will likely come to a realisation down the line about the economic hardship that a Brexit pursued by the Tories will deliver.

Consider this though, if a Vote of no confidence were to be triggered and somehow the Hard Brexiteers managed to install someone that shared their vision post-European European Union model for the U.K would look, for example Boris Johnson. Corbyn may encounter issues of his own 43% of people oppose the Brexit that Corbyn is pursuing, if by the time the next general election came around the Tories had started to repeal worker rights, whilst the economy crumbled and inequality soared, the pitch forks may come for Labour HQ, as a party that complied in the process.

For now, Corbyn will have the benefit of hindsight on the top issue of the decade, an advantage that may yet become a hindrance. Theresa will likely remain in power, but picture a Jenga block with 48 signatures. The powerful backbenchers from the ERG group, that have seemingly dictated policy within the Tory party are playing a game of chicken, they realise that the Brexit that has to be agreed upon by October will not deliver their dream of a fully neoliberal state.


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